1.1 the yield is low in season, and the cutting in main production area is advanced
It can be seen from the seasonal output chart that the annual output is low from February to April, and the output gradually increases from May, but it is still at the low level of the whole year. This year, the weather conditions in the main production areas are good, the cutting is ahead of schedule, and the supply pressure in the second quarter is higher than that in previous years.
At present, Yunnan and Hainan provinces in China have been cutting gradually, generally 15-30 days in advance. Although the rubber plantations near Ho Chi Minh, the main production area, have not been cut yet, the rubber trees are growing well and are waiting to be cut at any time. According to people from some production areas, there is less rain at present. Once there is sufficient rain irrigation, the rubber trees can be cut immediately. It is preliminarily estimated that Vietnam's production area will enter the full cutting season in early April. It is understood that Thailand is expected to gradually open before and after the songgan Festival, while Malaysia will gradually open in mid April. It is estimated that the year-on-year growth rate of output in the second quarter of this year is expected to be 4-5%.
1.2 the end of the three countries' restrictive policies, export or release
On November 29, 2017, senior officials of the international tripartite rubber Council (ITRC) held a meeting in Chiang Mai, Thailand. Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia unanimously agreed to implement a number of measures to boost international natural rubber prices, including the implementation of the agreed export tonnage plan (aets). The main producing countries restrict rubber exports by 349000 tons, and the export restrictions are expected to be three months after December.
At present, the export restriction plan has ended. In retrospect, the policy has been well implemented, and many ships in Thailand and Indonesia have been delayed. According to the data, the output of ANRPC in the first two months was 1.93 million tons, up 3.4% year on year. Due to export restrictions, the export volume of member countries in the first two months was 1.443 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.7%. In Thailand, Indonesia and other places, domestic factory inventory increases due to export restrictions, which is essentially inventory transfer. Since the end of export restrictions in April, the release of exports from major producing countries will increase supply pressure.
2. Domestic supply and demand are tightening, and inventory is slowly removed. 2.1 domestic opening is ahead of schedule, and import is expected to be low
At present, the production areas of Hainan in Yunnan Province are gradually cutting. In the early stage of cutting, the glue purchase price is low, about 9.6-9.7 yuan / kg. Under this price, the enthusiasm of glue farmers is low. In the later stage, with the recovery of processing plants, the glue price is expected to increase. In addition, the production areas in Hainan are also gradually cutting in the near future. Generally, the output is low in the early stage of cutting, but due to the high inventory in recent years, cutting ahead of time will undoubtedly bring more pressure for the long term.
In the first quarter, due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, low downstream consumption, high inventory and export restrictions of the three countries, the total import volume of natural rubber is expected to decline year-on-year, including a 29% year-on-year decline in February, and a total import of 834000 tons from January to February, an increase of 7% year-on-year. In March, it is expected that the year-on-year decline will continue. However, due to good consumption, there will be a big increase in the month on month ratio. It is expected that the total import volume in the first quarter will reach about 1.31 million tons.
In the second quarter, due to the low output of the main production areas, the import volume is often small. In addition, in the past two years, China's imports of natural rubber were greatly affected by the non-standard arbitrage of mixed rubber. In the second quarter, the arbitrage income was often small, and the demand for this part was small. However, due to the end of the three countries' export restriction policies and the transfer of this part of the inventory, it is expected that the import in the second quarter will decrease slightly year on year.
2.2 stable consumption and basic balance of supply and demand
The "golden three silver four" is often the peak consumption season of the tire industry in the first half of the year. In March this year, due to the general performance of the logistics industry and the real estate industry, the tire production and sales performance is general. We should not be too optimistic about the performance of the second quarter. After April, the consumption situation will tend to be flat. According to the macroeconomic and downstream situation, we forecast the supply and demand balance in the second quarter. From the supply and demand balance table, we can see that the total output is expected to be 227000 tons, the import is 1113000 tons, the consumption is 1338000 tons, and the supply and demand are basically balanced. Among them, the domestic new rubber production pressure will be concentrated in the last period, the rest of the rubber will be in the state of destocking.
2.3 arbitrage, spot pressure increases
At present, mixed rubber is the largest import type in China, accounting for more than 50% of the total imports of natural rubber. A large number of mixed rubber are in the hands of arbitrage dealers. When the base of mixed rubber and Shanghai rubber is high, they buy mixed rubber and sell Shanghai rubber. When the base is narrow, they sell Shanghai Rubber and Shanghai Rubber and close their positions to make profits. Previously, due to the large price difference between the two, arbitrage offer did not appear, spot liquidity is small, the price is relatively strong. Since the Spring Festival, the basis has narrowed rapidly. At present, the basis between Hejiao and HuJiao 1805 has reached below 1000. The arbitrage market is gradually coming out, and the spot pressure will increase in the second quarter.
3. High inventory, long way to go
3.1 the dominant inventory in the bonded area decreased, and the inventory outside the bonded area increased
The inventory of natural rubber in the bonded area mainly reflects the situation of imported standard rubber. Because the imported standard rubber is not the main arbitrage target and the import is rational, the inventory is at a low level at present. As of April 3, 2018, compared with the previous period, the rubber inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to decline, with a decrease of nearly 18000 tons, a decrease of 7.3%. The shipment volume increased, and the total inventory was about 226000 tons. In the second quarter, due to the low foreign supply of natural rubber, the bonded zone inventory is expected to continue to decline.
However, it is understood that the inventory outside Huangdao area is still at a high level, with more than 250000 tons of mixed rubber, and the warehouse has been in a state of full capacity. At present, with the return of the spread between futures and spot prices, arbitrage is gradually released, and the spot pressure is gradually increasing. And it is understood that due to the pessimistic market expectations, at present, most tire enterprises keep purchasing and using at any time, and the inventory of raw materials is about 1-2 weeks, which is at a low level, which is not conducive to the transfer of inventory. In the second quarter, the mixed rubber inventory transferred from arbitrage to market, and the spot pressure will increase.
3.2 domestic cutting, inventory pressure of the previous period increased
The inventory of the previous period has been maintained at a high level since this year. At present, the total inventory has reached 442700 tons, and the volume of warehouse receipts is close to 420000 tons, which has reached the highest level before the centralized cancellation of old rubber in November last year, and the growth rate of inventory has been high.
At present, China's Yunnan and Hainan production areas are gradually cutting, and most of them are cutting after the Qingming Festival. This year, the cutting time is generally 15-30 days ahead of schedule. At the beginning of cutting, the amount of glue is small, and the purchase price is low, and the enthusiasm of glue farmers is low. But at present, the processing plants are starting one after another, and the demand for glue is increasing, which will undoubtedly promote the enthusiasm of glue farmers. In the current high inventory, with the production of new glue in the second quarter, it will undoubtedly bring more pressure to the inventory of the previous period.
4. The downstream consumption is flat
4.1 the rebound of infrastructure and real estate investment is difficult to sustain
In 2018, China's public fiscal revenue budget is 1.832 billion yuan, and public fiscal expenditure budget is 2.098 billion yuan, both lower than the growth rate in 2017, and the fiscal deficit ratio is reduced to 2.6%. The slowdown of fiscal expenditure has a significant impact on the reduction of direct investment, and the increase of infrastructure investment brought by PPP project investment is not obvious.
Fiscal expenditure is the most important financial fund for infrastructure investment. Therefore, it is estimated that the growth rate of infrastructure investment in the first quarter of 2018 is 12.67%, and that in the second quarter is expected to be 13.89%, with a year-on-year decline and a slight increase on a month on month basis. From the perspective of real estate development investment, in the first quarter of 2018, the construction and installation projects were not promoted by policies such as rental housing and long-term rental apartments, but supported by the high growth rate of land purchase cost, the real estate development investment had strong resilience. However, in the second quarter, when the land purchase cost was greatly weakened and the construction and installation project was not strong, it is expected that the rebound of the growth rate of real estate development investment exceeding the expectation is unsustainable.
